Well,
I suppose we shouldn't be too surprised, the Ukraine-Russia crisis has been eating away in that region for years, and a tipping point has clearly been reached. I think it's a legitimate question for us to ask "what's changed?", there are several hypothesis currently swirling around that question, some more fanciful than others. For me there are two plausible front runners. Firstly, that this is an attempt by an aging dictator to distract his people and further entrench his position, the well trodden, "they're all out to get us" ploy. Secondly, that this same dictator has simply become paranoid and is acting out some fantasy of empire and glory from a delusional view of the past, in other words, we're no longer dealing with a rational actor.
I don't know which of these is true, or even something else, but there's clear evidence for both. I did also notice how Putin seems to be playing out this charade exactly from the playbook of Trump, the posturing, the public theatre of signing pointless "laws", the rewriting of history and the poker faced proclamations of blatant falsehoods all depressingly reminiscent of how politics has been evolving both in the USA and here in the UK over the last decade or so, the tactics are clear, what's more elusive are the motives, at least he moves with the times I suppose, an indication perhaps that he's not totally bonkers just yet?
Another worrying sign for me is how Putin has aligned himself to religion. No longer is the church a threat to the state, as it was in communist times, something to be suppressed, but a tool with which to manipulate and control the ignorant masses (it's traditional role in those parts) Another dimension to the "mental health" theory is his paranoia around Covid, recent pictures of his stage managed meetings and signings show a man clearly worried about maintaining social distance, much more so than is necessary, these signs are not good. He recently attended Christmas mass alone (see picture below) at a residence outside Moscow rather than visit a church with other people, this is just plain weird and clearly an ominous sign that everything may not be firing on all cylinders in the Putin cranium?
How should we react? Another excellent question, and not one I see a clear answer to. It would seem that our own Government is up to it's neck in debt to Russian cash donors and that's alarming, however not quite as alarming perhaps as our seemingly heavy dependence on Russian commodities such as fuel, wheat and raw materials such as rare earth metals! It may be time to start looking again at the North Sea as a source of natural gas, much that that causes us pain from a carbon reduction point of view! Then again I guess if Russian gas isn't being burned because we're not buying it from them then the overall net result for the Planet isn't necessarily a lot worse from an emissions point of view. I'm not sure why we haven't kicked Russia (and Belarus) out of the financial systems of the world yet, that seems an obvious move to me? Also slapped personal financial and travel sanctions on it's international jet-set, maybe they could move their lavish lives from London and Nice to Tehran and Shanghai instead, see how that sits with them? Requisition London property, tricky but maybe, perhaps even expel Russian citizens from the UK, also tricky. I could see how this kind of ratchet of measures might sway the will of ordinary Russians but honestly, I can't see that our leaders would have the balls to do it or that it would make much difference to someone like Putin, it might even tip him over the edge if the "tonto" theory is correct.
Then, of course, is the question of helping the Ukrainians themselves. Supply weapons and intelligence to them, well yes, but without proper training and organisation that's a bit like supplying weapons to the Afghan army, i.e. pointless and in the end self-defeating since it all ends up in the hands of the Russian army anyway. I think the only realistic thing we can do is to pile our own armies and resources (such that they are) into the NATO countries surrounding the Ukraine, for example Poland and the Baltic states, hold our own strategic "exercises" close to the border. It would be a risky and provocative move but might give ordinary Russians pause for thought? However, the absolute poison of the false information war emanating from such a move would be something else in this scenario, I'm not sure we have the competence "in-house" to manage it that well TBH.
It's a really depressing and somber day. After the genocidal breakup of the Balkans and the falling of the Berlin wall I never thought that we'd find ourselves back in a place where a full scale land war on the European continent was not just likely but actually in progress! What's even more depressing is the pathetic shower that we call a Government, I simply have zero confidence that they can or will act in anything like a strong, measured and coherent leadership role. I listen to the pompous and childish ramblings of our defense secretary and contrast that with the stern, articulate and grown-up speech of someone like the German chancellor and rue the day that we left the EU. That is where we should be at this moment, at the heart of things in the centre of a bullet proof alliance of like-minded and powerful states, not on the sidelines suffering our ridiculous and petty criminal leaders to make empty threats.
