Some interesting data/analysis going on here. Mathematical models suggesting (based on real data so far) when the current pandemic will end in different countries if current trends continue. The calculations (differential equations in Matlab) seem fair enough to me (look at the notes), of course none of this is guaranteed, if people start disobeying the lock-down rules or Governments lose their nerve and start relaxing the rules too soon then these predictions are meaningless. New (upward trending) curves will almost certainly emerge. If the UK comes out of this at 99% by the end of May then I'll be pleased and surprised, I think we've got some serious issues here with reporting data and so these figures will almost certainly need to be refined, but, let's hope it's there or thereabouts. If you look at the graph for Australia, they come out a whole month earlier, just goes to show what difference leadership makes. Of course people will say that you can't compare the two because of population density and geographical isolation etc., but, you just need to look at Germany or South Korea (which are both more or less as densely populated as the UK) to see much better outcomes as a result of better strategy and faster mobilization.
For completeness here's the table for the best performing countries analysed (top 40), the spread of "success" is quite wide but regardless of what our feckless PM says, you can't look at the UK numbers and claim that we're "succeeding" like he did on Monday, certainly not on the end-date (we're not even in the top 40!) nor on numbers of deaths (Germany has many times less than we do) quite the opposite in fact. So this begs the question, is Johnson lying to us or just stupid, possibly even both, my money is on the former, we shall see.
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