Some smarty pants has done some statistical calculations around the probabilities of leading conspiracy theories surviving being exposed by looking at the key factors surrounding the events themselves, particularly the number of people involved. As expected they found that the more people involved the less likely it is that the cover-up would stay secret for any length of time, you can read the paper here.
Here are the results expressed as a maximum amount of time that any particular cover-up would stay secret..
Moon Landing Hoax - 3.68 years
Climate-change fraud - 3.70 years
Vaccination Conspiracy - 3.15 years
Suppressed Cancer Cure - 3.17 years
You can't argue with the numbers, although the kinds of people that believe this kind of crap probably don't value mathematical demonstrations of the untenability of their beliefs. For them it's all about faith and confirmation bias.
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