Been reading the scientific paper from Imperial College (London) - fascinating. If you get the chance you should try to wrap your brain around it, it's available here. The hospitalization rates and therefore the ultimate fatality rates are interesting, they clearly show how age affects the numbers, suffice to say it's really, really important to keep this virus away from old people (see below)
Without wholesale suppression (i.e. isolation and shutting everything down) the number of people that would require ICU beds would overwhelm our system (both here and in the USA) leading to 250,000 deaths. When we do suppress the transmission we lower the need for beds but delay the spike in deaths until later, i.e. when restrictions are eased the deaths spike immediately. The plan seems to be to pump the brakes, i.e. suppress, release, suppress, release etc. But the problem (and the thing that's not being explained) is that this is going to take 12-18 months or until we've got a vaccine, something like 4 months on and 2 months off (& repeat) etc.. (see below)
So, get used to the new normal folks, the WFH culture and fiscal thumb-screws will become something we will all need to get our heads around. We'll need to knock quite a few things on the head quite quickly, people will need to properly self-isolate (they're not right now), stockpiling will need to be made a crime, businesses will need to innovate and re-think and leaders will need to lead! Let's hope we can overcome the panic (which I think will come when people understand these points) without too much angst and suffering, and get to a new steady-state quickly, as a country and society we have the resources to nail this (in fact we have more than we need) but if you understand the contents of this paper, it's going to be tough.
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